#cryptobrew 0006 : Bear Market?

🐻 Crypto Market Cycles

CoinDesk published a post 3 days ago hinting at the fact that we were already in a Crypto Bear market. As I’ve always said, I’m a very open minded person. I take all information in, especially from smarter folks, then use that information to do my own due diligence and analysis breakdown. From there, I come up with my own decisions.

I love studying patterns and/ or trend analysis. I found the post interesting because they backed it up with a pretty interesting visual, see below:

What’s the verdict?

So for a moment, let us roll with it and make the assumption that what CoinDesk is saying is spot on. Here are my thoughts:

  1. Based on the pattern above, each Bear market cycle has been getting shorter and shorter

  2. The 2018 Bear market cycle was roughly 50% from the previous 2015 cycle

  3. The 2020 Bear market cycle was roughly 70% from the previous 2018 cycle

  4. If I were to make an educated guess based on the patterns, let’s use an average cut of 60% to predict the end of this next bear market cycle. Therefore 60% of 260 days is roughly 160 days

  5. If the Bear market started on April 14, 160 days from that date will take us to roughly end of September

  6. This means if believe all this to be true, then the Bull market will continue sometime in the fall around September timeframe, which also means from now till then, Bitcoin will be in a lull

  7. The only caveat I would add here, is that there is so much more institutional buying this time around, I would shorten the timeline even more and guesstimate more of a mid-August timeframe for things to pick back up

  8. This also means during the lull period, we will have frequent price drops…which ironically is what has been happening, since it would mean we are in a Bear market

  9. This in a way also aligns with what my favorite crypto analysts have been saying which is that fact that we will still see a $25K price first before we can continue the Bull run

So there you have it. Take it for what its worth, but that’s how I broke things down if I were to go with this theory.

MELD

This is a project I recently discovered and really excited about. MELD is a DeFi project built on the Cardano blockchain looking to truly revolutionize the seamless integration between fiat and crypto. Essentially you will be able to store your crypto, get loans against it, and earn yields on your crypto while all being Decentralized.

What’s even more fascinating is that they are looking to launch what I believe to be the first ISPO (Initial Stakepool Offering), which allows anyone to get in on the project early even before the private sale begins. This is huge and is something I’m looking to participate in. I’ll provide updates later after I try it out.


🔗 Links

  1. Are we still in a bull market? - CoinDesk Instagram

  2. MELD — Initial Stake Pool Offering - Medium

  3. Meld Homepage - Meld.com


As always, this is not financial advice. I use this as a way to journal my thoughts and share with anyone else interested enough to want to read this, as well as for educational purposes only.